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Perspectives

Insights, Research and Market Commentary

Original perspectives from Gideon's investment team: monthly market observations, PPLI research, and tax planning analysis — all available as free PDF downloads.

Monthly Cadence
Market observations published every month
Principal-Authored
Written by Gideon's CIO, Head of Investments, and CTO
Actionable Perspective
Macro views connected to portfolio implications
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Recent Articles

The latest from Giorgio Caputo, Head of Investments, and Glenn Gutwillig, Chief Technology Officer.

Market Commentary

Monthly Market Observations

Giorgio CaputoJune 2026

Three developments defined May 2026: (1) Memory Lapse -- Rampant AI compute demand created extreme memory shortages, with Micron Technology joining the $1 trillion club after a 19% single-day surge; High Bandwidth Memory is sold out past year-end and has become a primary bottleneck alongside TSM fab allocations and power infrastructure; (2) Strong Earnings, Stark Divide -- S&P 500 Q1 earnings grew nearly 29%, the best since Q4 2021, though the Mag 7 accounted for roughly 63% growth versus 17% for the remaining 493 companies; (3) Iran, Inflation, and Bonds -- April PCE came in at 3.8% headline and 3.3% core as Hormuz blockade energy costs seeped into broader measures; the ECB hiked, the BoJ raised inflation forecasts, and the 30-year Treasury yield surged above 5%. Portfolio considerations address a K-shaped consumer economy, Chapter 11 filings at a 10-year high, and rising spec-grade default projections.

Market Commentary

Monthly Market Observations

Giorgio CaputoMay 2026

Three developments defined April 2026: (1) Rise of the Machines -- The AI trade stormed back with the SOX Semiconductor index posting its second-best monthly performance on record, driven by long-term chip and cloud partnerships between Google, Intel, Broadcom, and Anthropic; (2) The Strait Remains Narrow -- Iran conflict talks in Islamabad failed twice, the US announced its own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, WTI surged above $105 and Brent hit $114, with damage concentrated in oil, bonds, and insurance rather than equities; (3) Losing Energy -- The IMF cut 2026 global growth to 3.1% and raised inflation to 4.4%, with energy importers in Europe and Asia (net imports of roughly 2.5% of GDP) most exposed. Portfolio considerations address the failure of traditional hedges, with gold falling 1.1% and Treasury yields rising 8-10bps, and the Fed leadership transition as Kevin Warsh awaited confirmation with markets pricing in no rate cuts through year-end.

Technology

Innovation Insights: A CTO's Perspective

Glenn GutwilligMay 2026

Gutwillig examines the global defense supercycle, a multi-year investment thesis spanning US and European public equity markets across a 7-15 year horizon. Four structural forces converge: Ukraine has exposed the gap between Western production capacity and sustained high-intensity peer warfare; NATO burden-sharing mandates have catalyzed the largest synchronized European rearmament since 1949; AI integration is reshaping intelligence, autonomous weapons, and precision munitions; and great-power competition has made defense spending politically durable across administrations. The report covers six critical investment areas -- air defense interceptor production, long-range precision strike, US supply chain reshoring, naval recapitalization, European air defense industrial creation, and autonomous systems -- with company-level analysis of US and European primes and non-traditional suppliers including Palantir and Anduril.

Market Commentary

Monthly Market Observations

Giorgio CaputoApril 2026

Three developments defined March 2026: (1) Operation Epic Fury — US/Israeli strikes on Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, stranding 200+ tankers and introducing a stagflationary supply shock into global markets; (2) AI Disruption — Oracle, Meta, Atlassian, and Block announced mass layoffs citing AI-driven restructuring, while Anthropic's leaked Mythos model rattled cybersecurity valuations; (3) Private Credit Stress — elevated fund redemptions tested quarterly liquidity limits, raising the risk of widening credit spreads. Portfolio considerations address a potential regime shift from disinflationary to stagflationary, and a watch on consumer resilience as the personal savings rate hits 4.5% and gas prices cross $4/gallon.

Research

Research and Analysis

Technical perspectives on PPLI, tax-efficient structures, and alternative investment strategy — authored by the Gideon research team.

Archive

Earlier Editions

Market letters from Erik Oros, CFA, CAIA, Chief Investment Officer, and curated external research.

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